Two match points from Turin: how Jodar took the last place, ATP Finals 2026

Jodar takes the last place

Rafael Jodar qualified for the Nitto ATP Finals on 6 November 2026. He holds the last of the 8 singles places with 3,234 points in the live ATP Race, and Alex de Minaur, the first player left out, has 3,170.

The Nitto ATP Finals are played in Turin, at the Inalpi Arena, from 15 to 22 November 2026. Jannik Sinner is out of the tournament with a knee injury, so the eight places go to the next players in the Race.

Fritz's two match points against Alcaraz

The ATP wrote on 5 November that Taylor Fritz "will qualify if he reaches the final, or he reaches semi-finals and Paul does not reach the final". On 6 November it wrote that Jodar would take the last place if Fritz lost to Carlos Alcaraz in the Paris quarter-final.

Tommy Paul lost his quarter-final to Ben Shelton earlier on 6 November, so by the ATP's scenario a win over Alcaraz would have put Fritz in Turin. Each of his 2 match points was for the place.

Fritz held those 2 match points and lost 6–7 7–5 6–3. The first came in set 2 at 5–3, on Alcaraz's serve, with the server's score at 40-A. The second came at 5–4, on Fritz's own serve, at 40–30.

The biggest point of the match was in set 3 at 4–2, with Alcaraz serving at 40-A. Alcaraz won it, leaving him at 77%, where the other outcome meant 55%. Each chance in this article is a model's estimate from the score and how both players had served so far in that match, with no rankings and no earlier matches.

The live Race around the cut

In the live ATP Race, Alex de Minaur is No. 10 with 3,170 points, 64 behind Jodar. Taylor Fritz is No. 11 in the live ATP Race with 3,050 points, 184 behind Jodar.

Novak Djokovic is No. 12 in the live ATP Race with 2,940 points, 294 behind Jodar. Tommy Paul is No. 13 in the live ATP Race with 2,925 points, 309 behind.

Before Paris, Fritz had 2,850 Race points by our count. Reaching the semi-finals, worth 400 points, would have given him 3,250, against 3,234 for Jodar: our sum, not an official figure.

Paris results for Fritz and Paul

Fritz beat Arthur Fils 6–3 6–4 in the round of 16 on 5 November, a round that separated winner and loser by 100 Race points. The biggest point was in set 1 at 3–2, with Fils serving at 30–40. Fritz won it, leaving him at 76%, where the other outcome meant 66%.

Paul beat Quentin Halys 7–6(3) 6–4 the same day, also a 100-point round. Shelton then beat Paul 6–4 4–6 6–3 in the quarter-final on 6 November, in a round that separated the two by 200 Race points.

In that match Paul won the biggest point, in set 3 at 1–0 on his own serve at 30–40, which left Shelton at 55%, where the other outcome meant 78%.

Results for De Minaur, Djokovic, Jodar and Tiafoe

Tomas Martin Etcheverry beat de Minaur 7–6(2) 6–3 in the round of 32 on 4 November, a round worth 50 Race points between the two. Etcheverry won the biggest point, in set 2 at 3–2 with de Minaur serving at 30–40, leaving Etcheverry at 82%, where the other outcome meant 64%.

Rinky Hijikata beat Djokovic 2–6 6–3 6–3 the same day, also a 50-point round. Hijikata won the biggest point, in set 3 at 3–3 with Djokovic serving at 30–40, leaving Hijikata at 72%, where the other outcome meant 46%.

On 3 November Casper Ruud beat Jodar 6–3 6–4, a round that separated the two by 50 Race points. Ruud won the biggest point, in set 2 at 4–4 with Jodar serving at 30–40, leaving Ruud at 94%, where the other outcome meant 80%.

Frances Tiafoe lost to Quentin Halys 6–3 1–6 7–6(9) on 4 November. Halys won the biggest point, in set 3 at 6–6 with Halys serving at 5–6, leaving him at 52%, where the other outcome meant <3%. Tiafoe qualified for the Finals on 6 November 2026.